Is it Time to Buy the Dip? NIFTY-50 Crash | Indraanil Guha English

IS IT TIME TO BUY THE DIP? NIFTY-50 CRASH

Even as the NIFTY grapples with one of the worst bouts of volatility in many years, it’s instructive to note that I had laid down on this very channel three clear conditions that must be fully met before a sizeable market crash can materialize. And I did so NOT today, but nearly 9 months back in the following video that was published back on 6-Apr-24:
   • How To Time The Upcoming Market Crash...  

The first out of these three conditions (Fed starting rate cuts) was fulfilled on 18-Sep-24. The second (“Un-inversion” of 3M-10Y Yield Curve) was fulfilled last month (on 13-Dec-24 to be precise). And that leaves just one last condition (Balance of the RRP going down to zero) yet to be fulfilled, and even this one is NOT very far from being met! It’s NOT a coincidence that equity markets are becoming increasingly jittery just as these conditions are getting fulfilled one by one. And this brings us to a very important question – now that the pre-requisite conditions for a market crash to materialize are all met, or is on the verge of being met, should we assume that a large market correction is imminent now?

Also, is the final melt-up in stocks that typically plays before the onset of every recession still on the cards? Or is this something that is unlikely to be witnessed in this business cycle?

Last but NOT the least, now that this correction has already played out for over 3 months, how close are we from the bottom and is it possibly now the right time to buy this dip?

These are the key questions whose answers I explore in this episode. So do watch this video till the end.

Also watch my recent 3-part series, in which I explored the key drivers of the current bout of volatility in the NIFTY. Part 1 of the 3-part series is available at:
   • Why are FIIs Selling? When will the S...  

Part 2 of the 3-part series is available at:
   • Why are FIIs Selling? When will the S...  

Part 3 of the 3-part series is available at:
   • Why are FIIs Selling? When will the S...  

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00:00 Teaser
00:52 Introduction and Happy New Year
01:55 Recap of NIFTY's trend since Sep-24
03:09 Overview of 3 conditions to be met before a market crash can materialize
05:27 3 broad questions/concerns to be addressed in this video
07:28 Relationship between US 10-Y Bond Yields and MOVE Index
09:19 Relationship between MOVE Index and NIFTY-50
12:15 Parallels with late-2021 / early-2022
15:07 What will mark the end of this correction?
17:10 Potential roadmap for “melt-up” to materialize
19:09 Is a crash imminent now?
20:24 Is a “melt-up” still on the cards?
21:12 Is it time to buy the dip?
21:58 Most potent risk to NIFTY right now?
23:53 Introduction to AlphaSIP® - Our proprietary “rules-based” investment approach


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